The problem After day 60, nobody owns the customer.
Why it happens Churn is an event, not a fade: a specific unresolved grievance, a feels-rigged conclusion, or price drift against remembered cheap upgrades. A generic miss-you message answers none of them, and the return door itself sometimes fails.
The behaviour we are driving They tap through to their own route with a live price and bid within 14 days, or walk back in unaided and are recognised. Either way a transaction closes the episode.
The job to be done “Show me it's relevant to a trip I actually take, make coming back effortless, and if you can't do either, leave me alone.”
A propensity-to-return score reads the dormant pool daily: it decides who is worth a knock, who is left in peace, and later whether a reason needs an offer.
Q4 marketing model, Business Case tab, exported 17 Sep 2026: volumes checked by Analytics 8 Sep 2026, organic and target rates still the May 2026 benchmarks; net is gross at the 23% take rate.
| Model row | Worked volume a month | Rate | Value per customer-month | Gross a year | Net a year | Q4, driven | Q4, in quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value-tiered win-back of the whole lapsed transacted band; incentive tiered by value RECOVER | 3,500 The number counts lapsed buyers contacted a month, a monthly flow drawn from the 68,100 marketable. | 4.5% vs 2.99% organic | £30 × 1.32 months × 12 a year | £20,091 | £4,621 | £392 | £292 |
Q4 2026: £392 net on the driven basis (Oct £0, Nov £0, Dec £392); £292 landing inside the quarter. Driven: months active credited to Q4, pro rata by days live from the launch, the basis the Q4 V2MOM carries. In quarter: only the months that fall in October to December (Tony, 10 Sep 2026: the forecast Marketing submits). Net is gross at the 23% take rate. Launch 1 December 2026.
Success metric Share of lapsed buyers (quiet 91 to 240 days) contacted in the month who transact again within 30 days (the reactivation rate).
Still to confirm Rates measured against holdout 8 Sep, rough until the holdouts mature (item 6). Launches 1 Dec, so Q4 carries one month; the propensity score is with Ivi
Ladders to Reactivation: reactivation rate 0.74% to 1.50%. Metric moved Reactivation %. Evidence B, benchmark.
DRAFT: volumes checked by Analytics (Ivi, 8 Sep 2026); organic and target rates are still the May 2026 benchmarks, holdout-measured but rough (To confirm item 6); value per customer-month is the Q3 model's. Source: Q4 2026 Marketing Model, Business Case (output) and Sizing tabs, exported 2026-09-17 (the live model). Every figure is incremental of the customers who would have returned anyway: worked volume × (target rate − organic rate) × months active × times a year × value per customer-month.
Each engineering-row chip is coloured by the ask: APP AND JOURNEY OWNED COMPUTED TRAIT · ANALYTICS NEW EVENT · ENGINEERING BUILDS READY · NOTHING TO BRIEF
| The moment | Phase 1, ships now | Phase 2, waits on engineering | Who builds it |
|---|---|---|---|
on the map: 1 · The route-anchored win-back The route-anchored win-back | braze push, email After day 60 of silence nobody owns the dormant customer and almost nothing reaches them. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · new model, computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 3 · The comparison anchor The comparison anchor | email, braze in-app message One concrete reason to look again: the walk-up fare on their route today against what their last upgrade cost. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 2 · The welcome-back landing The welcome-back landing | braze content card A returner stops landing on the same generic cold start as everyone else: the card recognises the absence, restates that the account is as they left… | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 4 · The final attempt, then a genuine end The final attempt, then a genuine end | email, braze push One last try that says so: what has changed on their route, live prices this week, and after this we stop asking. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · new model, logic changeDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 5 · The anniversary message The anniversary message | email, braze push A year on, the one owned reminder of what they liked: the same trip, this year’s real prices, against the walk-up fare. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 2 · The welcome-back landing The live incentive card | The card retires in the go-live change, under the archiving rule. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze build |
on the map: 1 · The route-anchored win-back Unlikely to return | The weekly-blasted deep tail is now deliberately left alone: churned one-time customers are about 80% of the stock and about 2% ever come back, so a… | Nothing waits | Analytics |
on the map: 1 · The route-anchored win-back Likely to return anyway | The one harm the record has measured is chasing customers who were coming back anyway (a bid-volume holdout on active power users read minus 11.8%). | Nothing waits | Analytics |
on the map: 1 · The route-anchored win-back The organic returner | Every read in this journey must clear organic return, not silence; sending win-backs to people already back both wastes sends and poisons the read. | Nothing waits | Marketing · copy only |
| The email deep tail | The deep tail stops being emailed on stale consent: sender reputation is a shared resource and the tail costs more than it could ever return. | Nothing waits | Braze · decision needed |
The words are on the journey map above. A D number opens that row of the Engineering brief; the engineering board uses the same numbers. Live sends not named here continue unchanged.
| The question | Owner |
|---|---|
| Rule the welcome-back owner: this journey fires and measures the card; the returning-customer home journey renders the surface. One owner, decided. | Blocks launch Sheran, at Gate 1 |
| Size and meter the one-time backfill wave: the persuadable band only, ranked by what a return is worth, route-stale customers left out, with the double-read holdout design. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| Run the frequency-band read (reactivation rate by transaction-frequency band across lapsed and churned), then size the two reverse-holdouts and the within-band holdouts from it. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| Restate the 1.5% reactivation objective’s denominator, and reconcile the pool counts across sources (279,876 verified against the circulating figures). | Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| The 24-month email deep-tail rule: confirm the working assumption (no engagement and no consent refresh in 24 months means no email). | Legal |
| Asked 6 Sep 2026: restate what the £219.94 per-reactivation value measures; until then no offer depth is priced and the journey’s revenue figure stays labelled as a belief. | Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| Confirm where every button lands: sign the register 'Where every tap lands' on this matrix against the deep-link availability list, one pass for the journey (Sheran, 6 Sep 2026, ruling J5-12). | Product |
| # | The ask | Hand back | Start here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The propensity-to-return band into the daily sync, on the standing pattern: the frequency band on day one, the model’s output when it clears its backtest; this one extension is the whole phase 2 launch gate. | The band in the sender, refresh cadence stated. | The Engineering brief’s plumbing band. |
| 2 | The route, from-price and anniversary traits, nightly, for this cohort. | The traits live, coverage stated. | The traits band on the Engineering brief. |
| 3 | Size the backfill waves and the double read: holdouts within bands (journey lift) and banded waves against a batch arm (targeting value), with the underpowered-band risk stated. | The wave plan and test design. | The measurement position on the Campaign brief. |
| 4 | Restate the 1.5% objective’s denominator and reconcile the pool counts across sources. | The restated objective and one pool number. | The hero figures on the Campaign brief. |
| 5 | Deliverable-reach counts per channel: consent is not reach (roughly 1.8x overstatement; warehouse push consent three months stale). | Reach ceilings per band and channel. | The suppressed rows on the Decisioning matrix. |
Every read must clear organic return: about 33,000 lapsed customers a month come back unaided and convert at new-customer rates.